The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey comes in lower than expected

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Published Date 11/22/2024

Yesterday the 10 year note increased 2 bps, this morning the note began down 3 bps. The initial improvement today driven by weak Flash PMI data in Europe. The services PMI slipped to 49.2 from 51.6, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 45.2 from 46. Flash readings are based on around 85% of the total survey responses each month. The yield on the 2-year German government bond fell 9 basis points to 2.02%.

Crypto currencies are the current focus as Bitcoin approaches 100,000.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +107, NASDAQ -3, S&P +5. 10 year 4.41% -2 bps. MBSs at 9:30 am were little changed, the FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +2 bps from yesterday’s close and -2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 9:45 am the S&P Global Flash PMI flash November manufacturing and service sector indexes; manufacturing expected at 48.8 from 48.5 in October, service sector forecasts +55.1 from 55.3 in October. Manufacturing index at 48.8. The reading signaled a deterioration in business conditions within the goods-producing sector for a fifth successive month but with the rate of deterioration moderating to the slowest since July. Although production fell at a sharply increased rate, all other PMI components moved higher. The rate of loss of new orders eased and employment rose for the first time in four months. Inventories meanwhile fell at a reduced rate and suppliers' delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent for 25 months. Longer delivery times were often linked to increased purchasing of inputs ahead of potential tariffs on imported inputs. The service sector reported 57.0 remains strong with most the gains tied to healthcare increases.

At 10 am a few minutes ago the final November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was expected at 73.0 but slipped back to 71.8.

Source: TBWS

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