November jobs were a little stronger than expected

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Published Date 12/6/2024

November NFP jobs better than forecasts, +227K against 211K estimates. Private jobs thought to be 200K reported +194K. Average hourly earnings forecasts +0.3% increased 0.4%, year/year estimates +3.9% reported +4.0%. The labor participation rate not so favorable at 62.5% from 62.6% in October. The October jobs were skewed by hurricanes, floods, and the Boeing strike originally reported +12K revised to +36K, still skewed. The number of people who said they could not work because of bad weather in November fell to just 62,000 from 512,000 in October. Overall, the report supports the view the Fed will cut rates in two weeks at the FOMC meeting. The economy added an average of 132,000 new jobs in October and November. Combining the two months helps offset major disruptions in employment in October.

The reaction in the bond market pushed the 10 year note to a new low since the middle of October to 4.14% -4 bp and breaking below the key 4.20% level that has captured declines for the last week (actually 4.18%).

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +155, NASDAQ +36, S&P +10. 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.14% -4 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +12 bps from yesterday’s close and +27 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am the preliminary December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index expected at 73.0 from 71.8 in November The index increased to 74.0.

Source: TBWS

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Darren Orshoff is a Marketing and Real Estate professional, licensed Realtor with the California Department of Real Estate DRE#01803671 with WSR Real Estate DRE#01977642.  Darren is also a Certified Mortgage Planner, A Certified Financial Literacy Coach, A Dave Ramsey Trained Financial Coach, A Certified Mortgage Advisor, and while Darren is licensed by the NMLS, he is not originating loans but refers lending transactions to Golden Empire Mortgage, Inc. ("GEM") [NMLS ID No. 2427] licensed by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation pursuant to the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act, for which he represents as the Corporate Marketing Coordinator.

Darren Orshoff

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