Third quarter GDP was revised higher for the third time

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Published Date 12/19/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market worsened by -34 bps yesterday. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower than expected, 220K versus estimates of 230K. Continuing Claims were 1.874M versus estimates of 1.890M.

Manufacturing: The December Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey cratered to -16.4 versus estimates of +3.0.

GDP: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the 3rd QTR GDP upward from 2.8% to 3.1%. This is the third time that we have seen this data set from the BEA for the 3rd QTR.

Housing: We will get the NARs November Existing Home Sales at 10 AM ET. It is expected to be in the 4.07M units range on an annualized basis.

Economic Indicators: We will get the non-government operated Conference Board's November Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) which is expected to show continued contraction (recession) of -0.1%.

Central Banks: As expected, the Bank of Japan kept their key interest rate unchanged. So did the Bank of England however 3 voted to cut rates.

Geopolitical: The government Funding Bill is being held up and risking a shut down.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are under pressure after yesterday's FOMC. Volatility has started high.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Darren Orshoff is a Marketing and Real Estate professional, licensed Realtor with the California Department of Real Estate DRE#01803671 with WSR Real Estate DRE#01977642.  Darren is also a Certified Mortgage Planner, A Certified Financial Literacy Coach, A Dave Ramsey Trained Financial Coach, A Certified Mortgage Advisor, and while Darren is licensed by the NMLS, he is not originating loans but refers lending transactions to Golden Empire Mortgage, Inc. ("GEM") [NMLS ID No. 2427] licensed by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation pursuant to the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act, for which he represents as the Corporate Marketing Coordinator.

Darren Orshoff

Realtor, Marketing Guru, Sushi Lover, Dad, Ham

License: CalDRE#01803671

The Key To Your Home!™ at WSR

6736 Palm Avenue, Riverside CA

Office: 951-468-8326

Cell: 951-323-2119

Email: darren@darrenorshoff.com

Web: http://sellriverside.com